Get Adobe Flash player

Helping the Forecast Work For You

Keeping ahead of changes in the weather…

Weather Forecasts in Perspective:

•Outlooks are often changing (see example).

• Forecasters have a myriad of models which can present problems.

• “Wrong” forecasts reflect neither malpractice nor malfeasance.

THE GOOD NEWS…

• Changes to forecasts can often be foreseen.

• Forecasters often “tip their hand” before making forecast adjustments.

• These changes most often begin two to three days ahead of the event.

QUESTIONS TO ASK…

• Is precipitation starting earlier or later than forecast?

• Is the sky unexpectedly cloudy or clear?

• Is the wind shifting earlier or later than expected?

• How does this forecast compare to the weather of the past week and month?

•How does this forecast compare to seasonal normals?

• How did yesterday’s forecast perform?

2 Responses to Helping the Forecast Work For You

  • How far ahead can you predict the weather forecast. I have a trip to Florida at the end of January. How can I prepare for the trip?

    • The general predictions based on the overall patterns are suggesting that Florida’s winter months will average warmer than normal and rainfall will be less than normal.
      Day to day predictions often don’t have much skill until we’re closer than 12 to 14 days away. The two-week forecast will usually be more reliable and specific than the 3-month forecast that is available now.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *